From a Real Estate Colleague in Canada....good check for first time home buyers.
Is that house really affordable? A reality check for
first-time buyers
A year in the life of Canadian households:
Spending on water and sewer bills up 2.7 per cent.
Spending on natural gas for home heating up 3.9 per cent.
Spending on electricity up 4.8 per cent.
Spending on cellphone services up 10.7 per cent.
First-time homebuyers, study these numbers because they’re
your future. When you own a home, your costs move ever higher over the years.
That’s why you have to consider not only affordability today, but also in the
year ahead.
When you buy a first home, you know the cost of your mortgage
and property taxes before you move in. But the broader range of costs is
unknown by most buyers, and so is the likely rate of increase on these costs
from year to year. Look at how these costs might increase from year to year.
One way to estimate how much more you’ll spend is to look at
the inflation rate, which was most recently pegged at 1.2 per cent on a
year-over-year basis. Another is to look at how much more actual people are
paying to run their homes and live their lives. A source of this data is
Statistics Canada’s survey of household spending, which looks at expenditures
both major (food and home maintenance) and minor (pet food and spending on
movies). The freshest numbers were issued earlier this year and they cover 2010
and 2011.
To set the stage, average hourly wage increases have been
running at about 2 per cent lately on a year-over-year basis. You’re ahead of
the official inflation rate at that level, but what about the specific costs of
owning a home?
Total household expenditures were up 3.1 per cent in 2011,
but spending didn’t rise in all areas. For example, households spent 1.8 per
cent less on food purchased at grocery stores, 2.7 per cent less on clothing
and 2.2 per cent less on household cleaning supplies. In any given year, you
will get some spending breaks as a homeowner.
More often, costs will rise from year to year. In 2011,
Canadian households paid more for most utilities, notably cellphone service and
Internet. Spending on property taxes rose 2.7 per cent, while home maintenance
and repair spending jumped almost 7 per cent and home insurance spending rose 5
per cent.
The survey of household spending represents the experience
of just one year compared with another, but as a long-time homeowner I can tell
you it’s on the money. So don’t hesitate to use the 3-per-cent overall increase
in total household spending from 2010 to 2011 as a guide on what to expect from
here on. Note: Financial planners often use 3 per cent as a long-term estimate
of inflation. No savvy planner would use the latest 1.2 per cent rate because
it reflects the unusual financial conditions of the past few years.
The most unpredictable factor in household spending is
unfortunately the most important – mortgage costs. Check out what’s happened as
a result of the half-a-percentage-point increase in five-year fixed mortgage
rates earlier this summer. On a house with a mortgage balance of $350,000, the
rise in rates would have bumped up the cost of monthly payments by 5.5 per
cent, if you assume a 5-per-cent down payment and a rise in mortgage rates to
3.39 per cent from 2.89 per cent.
The average posted five-year mortgage rate over the past
decade was about 6 per cent. You can cut that down to 4.25 to 4.5 per cent to
factor in today’s rate discounting trends, but you’re still looking at a major
cost increase over today’s rates. On that $350,000 mortgage, the jump from 3.39
to 4.25 per cent would increase payments by 9.4 per cent.
Recent trends in pay increases suggest you shouldn't count
on big pay increases to soak up the cost of higher mortgage rates and household
costs down the road. This makes it imperative to buy less house than you can
afford now, ideally much less. Cut yourself some slack.
What does this mean Liz? If you are a first time home buyer, congratulations, you want to start putting money into an asset that will grow as you grow. However, not everyone is ready to make the switch. Think about the costs you have as an owner, versus renter. Now you are responsible for the hot water heater or the roof repair, or any other tasks, and you have to build a budget for these things. You essentially raised your responsibility level 1000%, and now you want to know, where do I start? Your Realtor will have a list of people who can help, contractors, professionals, all sorts of people who can help you work through the lists of issues, and allow you to sleep better at night. Call me to learn more about how I can help you as a first time home buyer.
Liz
No comments:
Post a Comment